What Will Worldwide Internet Traffic Be in 2005?

Probe Research announces the launch of a new subscription service, Worldwide Internet Traffic (WIT), directed by Tony Marson, which will provide statistical reports on global Internet usage. In the inaugural issue, Marson examines IP peak traffic demand globally, both within and between all major regions of the world, and projects that by 2005, North American Internet users will be outnumbered by European Internet users and rivaled by the number of Asia/Pacific-based users.

"It is critical to consider our present and immediate past position so that we can accurately track the trends," explains Marson. "For instance, while global Internet peak traffic increased approximately 83Gbps from year-end 1999 to year-end 2000, the Internet basically remains U.S.-centric with North America terminating and originating routes increasing from 50Gbps to more than 90Gbps of peak demand. However, the overall share of peak demand has decreased from 63 percent to 53 percent."

According to Marson, the forecast methodology is based on the assumption that demand is primarily driven by bandwidth per host and per connection. He proposes that:

Approximately half of all peak demand is associated with routes originating and terminating in North America.

Narrowband access is still completely dominant worldwide and will remain as such, but less so, throughout the forecast. By 2005, deployments of cable, DSL and other high-speed access solutions will drive the average bandwidth per user up as high as 225Kbps in the most advanced countries.

More conclusively, however, Marson states by 2005, IP traffic will mimic current international voice traffic patterns. The evidence presently seen in shifting IP traffic patterns are only a prelude to the 'PSTN-like' International traffic patterns.